美國危機和緊急情況管理手冊(Handbook of Crisis and Emergency Management)提出了公共危機管理的四階段模型,即減除(Mitigation)、預防(Preparedness)、反應(Response)和恢復(Recovery)[4]。“減除”是指減少影響人類生命、財產的自然或人力危險要素,如實施建筑標準、推行災害保險、頒布安全法規等;“準備”是指發展應對各種突發事件的能力,如制訂應急計劃、建立預警系統、成立應急運行中心、進行災害救援培訓與演練等;“響應”是指災害發生的事前、事中與事后采取行動以挽救生命、減少損失,如激活應急計劃、啟動應急系統、提供應急醫療援助、組織疏散與搜救等;“恢復”既指按照最低運行標準將重要生存支持系統復原的短期行為,也指推動社會生活恢復常態的長期活動,如清理廢墟、控制污染、提供災害失業救助、提供臨時住房等。PCIM過程論就是從公共危機管理的四個階段出發,研究每一階段的信息保障和信息管理問題(見圖2)。
在經典文獻中,阿利森和澤利科在《決策的本質——解析古巴導彈危機》(Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis)中闡述了危機與決策的關系以及決策模式,將危機管理看成是決策論的一個分支加以研究,強調了信息在危機決策中的作用。米特洛夫和皮爾森在其著作《危機管理》(Crisis Management)中指出,搜集、分析和傳播信息是危機管理的直接任務[5]。奧托·萊爾賓格爾在《危機主管:直面風險與不確定性》一文中,從信息角度分析了危機管理者的職能和素質[6]。羅納德·伯克和卡里·庫珀在《持續性危機溝通:規劃、管理和響應》一書中分析了危機管理中的信息需求問題,提出了持續性的危機管理方法,探討了信號尋求、危機預防、危機準備、危機識別、危機遏阻、危機恢復等相關問題[7]。
(2)信息處理:對危機信息進行選擇、組織和加工整理,是把無序的信息流轉化為有序信息流和支持危機決策的知識。在當前大數據環境下,對海量實時危機信息流的處理和挖掘分析在技術上已成為可能,正成為社會計算(Social Computing)、計算社會科學(Computational Social Science)、商務智能(Business Intelligence)等學科的研究熱點[9]。
(2)決策:支持危機決策是PCIM的核心功能,危機信息的收集、組織、分析、解讀均以決策目標為中心。賈尼斯在《決策與危機管理中的領導》(Crucial Decision: Leadership in Policymaking and Crisis Management)一書中,在總結各類決策模式的基礎上,提出了危機決策流程的約束模型和四大步驟,闡述了信息搜集在問題確認、信息資源利用、分析和方案形成以及評估和選擇中的作用[21]。Roberto G.aldunate等人研究并提出了一種分布式協同決策模型,主要用于大規模減災中的決策制定[22]。De Maio等研究了一種基于語義網絡來協調異質數據和柔性計算的方法,用來處理不確定性因素和模擬植入在應急計劃中的因果推理,來支持應急決策和資源調度[23]。GIS可通過獲取數據、存儲數據、處理數據、分析數據以及可視化數據,為危機管理者提供了決策支持[24]。除決策系統設計之外,決策信息的傳達及決策中領導績效的測量也受到了關注[25-26]。
(4)評估。不僅指對危機后的評價,還包括對危機前的風險評估以及危機中“可減緩性”、“可挽救性”與“可恢復性”的評價,其中尤其要注重危機前的風險評價,因為它具有“可消除性”[32]。美國聯邦應急管理署(FEMA)了一系列與風險有關的文件,其中包括風險地圖、評估和規劃(RiskMAP)的項目管理、戰略、技術服務和用戶數據服務等[33]。日本學者Ana Maria Cruz 和Norio Okada研究了城市由自然災害引發的技術災難(Natech)[34],并提出了針對此類災難進行風險評估的一套方法論。德國的備災評估項目中建立了比較成熟的備災指標和框架,可進行多種與災難相關的評估[35](Center for Hazards Research and Policy Development University of Louisville,2006)。在火山、地震、泥石流、海嘯等自然災害風險評估與災害影響評估中,交互式繪圖信息系統、地理空間信息技術、遙感遙測等技術得到了廣泛應用[36-39]。
在經典文獻中,1984年,沙特朗(R. L. Chartrand)等人在名為《用于應急管理的信息技術》(Information Technology for Emergency Management:Report)的研究報告中,著重研究了應急通信系統、與自然災害有關的信息存儲與檢索系統,以及其它信息技術在減災和危機管理等方面的應用問題[48]。科林(Nick Collin)討論了危機信息管理中對信息和技術管理重構的重要性[49]。1999年,美國國家研究理事會(National Research Council, NRC)編著的《用于危機管理的信息技術研究》(Information Technology Research for Crisis Management)詳細介紹了各種可用于危機管理的信息技術的特點、作用等,并強調要通過信息技術的運用來應對各種危機[50]。在危機管理實踐中,全球著名的ESI公司開發了基于Web的應急信息管理系統——Web EOC系統,已得到了廣泛利用,可以使組織在沒有建立緊急事件處理中心的情況下也能很好地預防和應對危機[51]。
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